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Tropical Cyclone Outlook

Key Messages

  1. In total, five to seven named tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected between November 2022 to April 2023. On average, around seven TCs affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR per season. Thus, this season is predicted to have a average or below average number of TCs.
  2. On average, around four TCs affect west of Dateline and around three affect east of Dateline per season. Tropical cyclone numbers to the west of Dateline in the RSMC-Nadi TCC AoR is likely to be three to six or average to above average TC activities, while numbers to the east is likely to be two to four TCs or average this season.
  3. For severe TCs (Category 3 or above), average or below average severe TCs are anticipated this season, with one to four severe TCs expected. On average, around three severe TCs affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR per season.
  4. This seasons TC outlook is greatly driven by the return of a third consecutive La Nina event, which is quiet exceptional and the event is likely to persist until end of the 2022.
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Figure 1: Total number of tropical cyclones forecasted for the region.

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Figure 2. Above map illustrates the number of Severe Tropical cyclones forecasted for the region

Other Relevant Information

  • The peak tropical cyclone season in the RMSC-Nadi TCC AoR is usually between January to February.
  • While the TC season is between November to April, occasionally cyclones have formed in the region in October and May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, an out of season tropical cyclone activity cannot be totally ruled out.
  • Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not attain TC intensity or low-pressure systems as a result of decaying cyclones, can still cause strong winds/gusts, widespread rainfall, landslides and potential flooding.
  • Due to widespread flooding, there is also potential of outbreak of waterborne diseases in the local communities, as previously been experienced during post flooding events.
  • With the current La Nina event and increasing chances of above average rainfall, there are also chances of coastal inundation to be experienced.
  • All communities should remain alert and prepared throughout the 2022/23 TC Season and please do take heed of any TC warnings and advisories, to mitigate the impact on life and properties.

    • Key Messages

    1. Two to three total number of cyclones are likely to pass through Fijis Exclusive Economic Zone during the 2022-23 tropical cyclone season.
    2. One to two cyclones are likely to reach severe category (Category 3-5) during the season.
    3. Most of the past cyclones during La Nina TC seasons have approached the Fiji Group from the north-west quadrant. Therefore, there will be elevated risks for the Western Division this season.
    4. With the recent re-establishment of a La Nina event and chances of it to continue until year end, there is high chance of receiving above average rainfall, which may lead to flooding across the Fiji Group, during the TC Season.
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    Figure 1: Total number of tropical cyclones forecasted for the Fiji region.

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    Figure 2. Above map illustrates the number of Severe Tropical cyclones forecasted for the Fiji region

    Other Relevant Information

  • While the tropical cyclone season is between November to April, occasionally cyclones have formed in the region in October and May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, an out of season tropical cyclone activity cannot be ruled out.
  • Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not attain TC intensity or low-pressure systems that are a result of decaying cyclone, can still cause widespread rainfall and potential flooding.
  • All communities should remain alert and prepared throughout the 2022/23 TC Season and please do take heed of any TC warnings and advisories, to mitigate the impact on life and properties.