In total, four to six named tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected between November 2021 to April 2022. On average,
around seven TCs affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR per season. Thus, this season is predicted to have an average to below average number of TCs.
Tropical cyclone numbers to the east of Dateline in the RSMC-Nadi TCC AoR is expected to be one to three
TCs or below average this season, while to the west of Dateline, it is likely to be three to five or average TC activities.
For severe TCs (Category 3 or above), average or below average severe TCs are anticipated this season, with one to three severe TCs expected.
This seasons TC outlook is greatly driven by the likelihood of a development of La Nina event towards the end of 2021.
Other Relevant Information
The peak tropical cyclone season in the RMSC-Nadi TCC AoR is usually between January to March.
While the TC season is between November to April, occasionally cyclones have formed in the region in October and
May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, an out of season tropical cyclone activity cannot be ruled out.
Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not attain TC intensity or low-pressure systems that are remnants
of older cyclones, can still cause widespread rainfall and potential flooding.
Key Messages
One to three total number of cyclones are likely to pass through Fijis Economic Exclusive Zone during the 2021-22 tropical cyclone season.
One to two cyclones are likely to reach severe category (Category 3-5) during the season.
Most of the past cyclones during La Nina TC seasons have approached the Fiji Group from the west.
Therefore, there will be elevated risks for the Western Division this season.
With the likelihood of a La Nina event during the TC season, there is increasing chances of flooding across the Fiji Group, during November to April.
Other Relevant Information
While the TC season is between November to April, occasionally cyclones have formed in the region
in October and May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, an out of season tropical cyclone activity cannot be ruled out.
Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not attain TC intensity or low-pressure systems that are remnants
of older cyclones, can still cause widespread rainfall and potential flooding.
