In total, four to six named tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected between November 2020 to April 2021.
On average, around seven TCs affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR per season. Thus, this season is predicted to have a
near average or below average number of TCs
Tropical cyclone numbers to the east of Dateline in the RSMC-Nadi TCC AoR is expected to be one to two
TCs or below average this season, while to the west of Dateline, it is likely to be three to six or near average to above average.
For severe TCs (Category 3 or above), near average or below average severe TCs are anticipated this season, with one to three severe TCs expected.
On average, around three severe tropical cyclones affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR per season.
Other Relevant Information
The peak tropical cyclone season in the RMSC-Nadi TCC AoR is usually between January to March.
While the TC season is between November to April, occasionally cyclones have formed in the region in October and
May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, an out of season tropical cyclone activity cannot be ruled out.
Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not attain TC intensity or low-pressure systems that are remnants
of older cyclones, can still cause widespread rainfall and potential flooding.
Key Messages
Tropical cyclone risk for Fiji during the 2020-21 season is likely to be near average, that is, one to three
tropical cyclones are expected to pass through Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
For severe Tropical Cyclone (TC), it is possible that one severe TC could affect Fiji during the season.
During past TC seasons which are similar to present, a number of tropical cyclones which affected Fiji passed
through the west of the Fiji Group. Thus, there is an elevated risk of TCs to pass through the Western Division this season.
With a La-Niña event established in the tropical Pacific, there is an increased risk of flooding across the Fiji Group
during the coming November to April period.
Other Relevant Information
The peak tropical cyclone season in the RMSC-Nadi TCC AoR is usually between January to March.
While the TC season is between November to April, occasionally cyclones have formed in the region
in October and May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, an out of season tropical cyclone activity cannot be ruled out.
Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not attain TC intensity or low-pressure systems that are remnants
of older cyclones, can still cause widespread rainfall and potential flooding.
