Tropical Cyclone Outlook
RSMC Nadi
Key Messages
- Eleven to fifteen Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are likely in the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Nadi-Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC Nadi-TCC) Area of Responsibility (AoR) between November 2026 to April 2027.
- On average, around seven TCs affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR a season. Thus, this season is predicted to have above average TC activity.
- Around four TCs per season on average affect west of the Dateline in the RSMC-Nadi TCC AoR and around four to the east. This season, five to six TCs are likely to affect west of the Dateline, which means near average or above average TC risk. To the east, eight to ten TCs are likely, which is an above average risk.
- Three severe TCs, that is, Category 3 or higher intensity, on average affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR a season. This season is likely to have six to eight severe TCs, which is an above average risk.
- Two to three severe (2-3) TCs are likely to the west of Dateline (long-term average is 2), which is near average risk. On the other hand, four to five (4-5) severe TCs are likely to the east of Dateline (long-term average is 2), which is an above average risk.
- While the TC season in the region is between November and April, occasionally cyclones have formed in October and May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, out of season TCs cannot be ruled out.
- The peak TC season in the RMSC-Nadi TCC AoR is usually between January to February, but TCs can form at any time throughout the season.
Figure 1: Total number of TCs forecasted for the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR.
Figure 2: Number of severe TCs forecasted for the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR.
Additional Information
- TC activities in the Pacific Island region are closely associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a fluctuation of oceanic and atmospheric condition between the eastern and western tropical Pacific Ocean.
- A strong El Niño event is firmly established in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with climate models favoring the event to develop to very strong intensity and persist through the remainder of 2026 and into early 2027.
- To predict the outlook for the 2026-27 TC season, analogue seasons were identified, that is, seasons in the past (from 1980) with similar background climate. These seasons were 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.
- The TCs season in the southwest Pacific extend from November to April, with the peak TC activities normally experienced from January to February. However, TCs have occasionally occurred in this region during October and May, and rarely in September and June. Two of the three analogue seasons (1982-83 and 1997-98) also had an out of season TC. Thus, out of season TCs cannot be ruled out.
- Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not attain TC intensity can also cause strong winds/gusts, widespread rainfall, landslides and flooding.
- Please contact the respective Pacific Island National Meteorological Service for detailed national level information.
RSMC Nadi
Key Messages
- Eleven to fifteen Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are likely in the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Nadi-Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC Nadi-TCC) Area of Responsibility (AoR) between November 2026 to April 2027.
- On average, around seven TCs affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR a season. Thus, this season is predicted to have above average TC activity.
- Around four TCs per season on average affect west of the Dateline in the RSMC-Nadi TCC AoR and around four to the east. This season, five to six TCs are likely to affect west of the Dateline, which means near average or above average TC risk. To the east, eight to ten TCs are likely, which is an above average risk.
- Three severe TCs, that is, Category 3 or higher intensity, on average affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR a season. This season is likely to have six to eight severe TCs, which is an above average risk.
- Two to three severe (2-3) TCs are likely to the west of Dateline (long-term average is 2), which is near average risk. On the other hand, four to five (4-5) severe TCs are likely to the east of Dateline (long-term average is 2), which is an above average risk.
- While the TC season in the region is between November and April, occasionally cyclones have formed in October and May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, out of season TCs cannot be ruled out.
- The peak TC season in the RMSC-Nadi TCC AoR is usually between January to February, but TCs can form at any time throughout the season.
Figure 1: Total number of TCs forecasted for the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR.
Figure 2: Number of severe TCs forecasted for the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR.
Additional Information
- TC activities in the Pacific Island region are closely associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a fluctuation of oceanic and atmospheric condition between the eastern and western tropical Pacific Ocean.
- A strong El Niño event is firmly established in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with climate models favoring the event to develop to very strong intensity and persist through the remainder of 2026 and into early 2027.
- To predict the outlook for the 2026-27 TC season, analogue seasons were identified, that is, seasons in the past (from 1980) with similar background climate. These seasons were 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.
- The TCs season in the southwest Pacific extend from November to April, with the peak TC activities normally experienced from January to February. However, TCs have occasionally occurred in this region during October and May, and rarely in September and June. Two of the three analogue seasons (1982-83 and 1997-98) also had an out of season TC. Thus, out of season TCs cannot be ruled out.
- Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not attain TC intensity can also cause strong winds/gusts, widespread rainfall, landslides and flooding.
- Please contact the respective Pacific Island National Meteorological Service for detailed national level information.
Fiji
Key Messages
- Two to three tropical cyclones (TCs) are likely to pass through Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone during the 2026-27 TC season.
- Of these, one to two TCs are likely to reach severe Category (Category 3-5).
- There is equal risk of TCs affecting any part of the Fiji Group.
- While the peak TC activities are usually from January to February, TCs can form at any time during the season. Out of season TCs cannot be ruled out.
- It does not take a direct hit or a severe TC to cause considerable damage or life-threatening weather. Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not attain TC intensity can and have previously caused strong winds/gusts, widespread heavy rainfall, landslides and flooding.
- All communities should remain alert and prepared throughout the TC season and take heed of all advisories whenever it is issued.
Figure 1: Total number of TCs forecasted for the Fiji region.
Figure 2. Number of severe TCs forecasted for the Fiji region.
Additional Information
- To generate the outlook for the 2026-27 TC season, analogue seasons were identified, that is, seasons in the past (from 1980) with similar background climate. These seasons were 1982/83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
- On average, around two TCs affect Fiji every season. Thus, near normal tropical cyclone activity is likely for the Fiji region this season.
- The TC season in the southwest Pacific extend from November to April, with the peak TC activities normally experienced from January to March. However, TCs have occasionally occurred in this region during October and May, and rarely in September and June. Out of season TCs cannot be ruled out this season.
- In the past, tropical depressions also had significant impact on Fiji, especially heavy rainfall and severe flooding. Thus, it is important to take heed of all-weather advisories seriously.
Detailed Outlook
January 14, 2025
