TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 021352 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY[JU-DEE] CENTRE 967HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.3S 175.0E AT 021200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 15 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 155 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 155 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INFILTRATES CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH
PARTIAL EXPOSURE OF LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE WITH
GOOD OUT FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH HIGH SHEAR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO
300HPA. SST IS AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. 
CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE IN W, YIELDS A DT OF 5.0.
MET AND PAT IS 4.5. FT BASED ON MET, THUS YIELDING
T4.5/5.0/W1.5/24HRS. 

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 26.0S 177.7E MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 27.5S 178.7W MOV ESE AT 16 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC 28.7S 174.2W MOV ESE AT 18 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 29.5S 169.5W MOV ESE AT 18 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED BY RSMC NADI
ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY .