TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES - ALL CENTRES FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 23:10 UTC, 16/07/2023 -------------------------------------------------------------------- ***** Received WTPN31 at 10:00 UTC, 16/07/23 from PHNC ***** MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E [CALVIN] WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03E [CALVIN] WARNING NR 021 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 03E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 135.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 135.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.5N 138.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.1N 142.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 17.5N 145.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 18.1N 149.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 18.7N 153.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 19.2N 157.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 20.0N 163.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 162200Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 136.6W. 16JUL23. TROPICAL STORM 03E [CALVIN], LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1312 NM EAST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 71618Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z. // NNNN ***** Received FZPS40 at 09:32 UTC, 16/07/23 from PHFO ***** HSFSP HIGH SEAS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 2330 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023 SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. THIS HIGH SEAS FORECAST USES 1-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS WHICH MAY BE HIGHER THAN 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS. SECURITE SOUTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 120W AND 160E SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC JUL 16 2023. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 17 2023. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC JUL 18 2023. .WARNINGS. .NONE. .SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. .TROUGH 15S167W 10S176E 09S160E MOVING S SLOWLY. E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT S OF TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH W OF 176E. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 17S167W 11S172E 12S160E. E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT S OF TROUGH. .48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 16S164W 12S178E 13S160E. E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT S OF TROUGH. .FRONT FROM 25S120W 22S140W 19S151W NEARLY STATIONARY W OF 138W AND MOVING N 10 KT E OF 138W. .24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT WEAKENING 22S120W 21S133W. .48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED. .24 HOUR FORECAST NEW TROUGH 25S135W TO 21S140W TO 18S156W. .48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 25S150W TO 16S163W. .24 HOUR FORECAST E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 10S BETWEEN 145W AND 160W. .48 HOUR FORECAST E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 10S E OF 144W. .WINDS 20 KT OR LESS REMAINDER FORECAST AREA. .SEAS 8 TO 11 FT W OF A LINE 10S180W 22S158W. .24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 11 FT W OF A LINE 10S175E 17S172W 25S167E. .48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 11 FT FROM 19S TO 13S W OF 172E. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT S OF 24S BETWEEN 164W AND 171W. .SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER REMAINDER FORECAST AREA. $$ .FORECASTER FOSTER. HONOLULU HI. ***** Received TPPN10 at 09:09 UTC, 16/07/23 from PGTW ***** A. TYPHOON 04W [TALIM] B. 16/2030Z C. 19.90N D. 113.50E E. THREE/HMWRI9 F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS G. IR/EIR H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY OW YIELDS AN E# AND DT [NO EYE ADJUSTMENT] OF 4.0. MET/PT AGREES. DBO DT. I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE DESSINO ***** Received WTPQ50 at 09:00 UTC, 16/07/23 from RJTD ***** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 2304 TALIM [2304] ANALYSIS PSTN 162100UTC 19.9N 113.4E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT GUST 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 12HF 170900UTC 20.7N 111.4E 25NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT GUST 095KT 24HF 172100UTC 21.3N 109.3E 35NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT GUST 080KT 45HF 181800UTC 22.5N 105.5E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ***** Received WTPN31 at 09:00 UTC, 16/07/23 from PGTW ***** MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 04W [TALIM] WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W [TALIM] WARNING NR 010 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 19.7N 114.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 114.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 20.2N 112.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 20.8N 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 21.4N 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 22.2N 105.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 22.4N 101.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 113.7E. 16JUL23. TYPHOON 04W [TALIM], LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 71618Z IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.// NNNN ***** Received WTPZ33 at 08:37 UTC, 16/07/23 from KNHC ***** TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Calvin Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 16 2023 ...CALVIN MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 136.3W ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Calvin. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of the main Hawaiian Islands later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST [2100 UTC], the center of Tropical Storm Calvin was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 136.3 West. Calvin is moving toward the west near 16 mph [26 km/h], and this general motion is expected to continue during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Calvin will move into the central Pacific basin late tonight or early Monday and approach the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph [100 km/h] with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles [150 km] from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb [29.42 inches]. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Calvin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/miatcdep3.shtml RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches are possible along windward areas of the Big Island of Hawaii on Wednesday and Thursday, with lower amounts [1-3 inches] expected elsewhere in the state. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Calvin are expected to begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart ***** Received WTPZ23 at 08:36 UTC, 16/07/23 from KNHC ***** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...[TCM]. CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...[TCP]. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 136.3W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 136.3W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.5N 138.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 142.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.5N 145.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.1N 149.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.7N 153.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 157.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 163.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 136.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART ***** Received WWNZ40 at 06:54 UTC, 16/07/23 from NZKL ***** GALE WARNING 235 THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREAS: FORTIES AND SOUTHERN AT 161800UTC OVER WATERS EAST OF WESTERN BOUNDARY. IN A BELT 300 NAUTICAL MILES WIDE CENTRED ON A LINE 50S 155E 50S 158E 50S 161E: WESTERLY 35KT. GALE AREA MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 55KT. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 229. ***** Received WWNZ40 at 06:53 UTC, 16/07/23 from NZKL ***** GALE WARNING 234 THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: FORTIES AT 161800UTC OVER WATERS EAST OF WESTERN BOUNDARY. IN A BELT 240 NAUTICAL MILES WIDE CENTRED ON A LINE 49S 160E 49S 164E 49S 167E: WESTERLY 35KT DEVELOPING NEXT 6-12 HOURS. ***** Received WWNZ40 at 06:52 UTC, 16/07/23 from NZKL ***** GALE WARNING 233 THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREAS: FORTIES AND SOUTHERN AT 161800UTC IN A BELT 180 NAUTICAL MILES WIDE CENTRED ON A LINE 57S 178E 55S 179W 55S 176W: WESTERLY 35KT EASING NEXT 6-12 HOURS. GALE AREA MOVING SOUTH 20KT. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 228. ***** Received WWNZ40 at 06:51 UTC, 16/07/23 from NZKL ***** GALE WARNING 232 THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC AT 161800UTC IN A BELT 180 NAUTICAL MILES WIDE CENTRED ON A LINE 39S 178W 37S 177W 35S 175W: SOUTHWEST 35KT DEVELOPING NEXT 6 HOURS. GALE AREA THEN MOVING NORTHEAST 20KT. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 227. ***** Received WWNZ40 at 06:50 UTC, 16/07/23 from NZKL ***** GALE WARNING 231 THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC AT 161800UTC LOW 987HPA NEAR 43S 151W, SLOW MOVING. WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN SECTOR FROM WEST THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST: CLOCKWISE 35KT AT TIMES. GALE AREA SLOW MOVING. ***** Received TPPN10 at 06:23 UTC, 16/07/23 from PGTW ***** A. TROPICAL STORM 04W [TALIM] B. 16/1740Z C. 19.66N D. 113.81E E. THREE/HMWRI9 F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS G. IR/EIR H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG YIELDS AN E# AND DT [NO EYE ADJUSTMENT] OF 4.5. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO PT. I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE DESSINO ***** Received FXPQ30 at 06:00 UTC, 16/07/23 from RJTD ***** RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST NAME STS 2304 TALIM [2304] PSTN 161800UTC 19.7N 113.8E PRES 975HPA MXWD 55KT FORECAST BY GLOBAL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM TIME PSTN PRES MXWD [CHANGE FROM T=0] T=006 20.1N 112.9E -001HPA +002KT T=012 20.5N 112.0E -004HPA +006KT T=018 20.9N 110.9E -003HPA +001KT T=024 21.1N 109.8E +001HPA -001KT T=030 21.4N 108.9E +004HPA -006KT T=036 21.8N 108.0E +008HPA -011KT T=042 22.1N 107.1E +013HPA -020KT T=048 22.3N 105.6E +017HPA -026KT T=054 22.4N 104.0E +021HPA -031KT T=060 21.9N 103.4E +020HPA -033KT T=066 29.6N 094.5E +013HPA -035KT T=072 30.6N 094.5E +020HPA -040KT T=078 30.1N 096.7E +024HPA -042KT T=084 29.5N 093.8E +010HPA -040KT T=090 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=096 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=102 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=108 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=114 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=120 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=126 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=132 ///// ////// /////// //////= ***** Received FXPQ20 at 06:00 UTC, 16/07/23 from RJTD ***** RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST NAME STS 2304 TALIM [2304] PSTN 161800UTC 19.7N 113.8E PRES 975HPA MXWD 55KT FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL TIME PSTN PRES MXWD [CHANGE FROM T=0] T=006 20.2N 112.8E -002HPA +002KT T=012 20.6N 111.8E -009HPA +015KT T=018 20.8N 110.9E -011HPA +013KT T=024 21.1N 109.8E -006HPA +005KT T=030 21.6N 108.9E -002HPA 000KT T=036 21.9N 107.8E +006HPA -011KT T=042 22.2N 106.9E +014HPA -025KT T=048 22.6N 105.7E +020HPA -031KT T=054 23.0N 104.4E +024HPA -035KT T=060 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=066 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=072 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=078 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=084 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=090 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=096 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=102 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=108 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=114 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=120 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=126 ///// ////// /////// ////// T=132 ///// ////// /////// //////= ***** Received WTPQ50 at 06:00 UTC, 16/07/23 from RJTD ***** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 2304 TALIM [2304] ANALYSIS PSTN 161800UTC 19.7N 113.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT GUST 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 12HF 170600UTC 20.6N 111.9E 25NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT GUST 095KT 24HF 171800UTC 21.1N 109.8E 35NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT GUST 080KT 48HF 181800UTC 22.5N 105.5E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ***** Received FKPQ30 at 06:00 UTC, 16/07/23 from RJTD ***** TC ADVISORY DTG: 20230716/1800Z TCAC: TOKYO TC: TALIM ADVISORY NR: 2023/12 OBS PSN: 16/1800Z N1940 E11350 CB: WI N1605 E11210 - N1655 E11050 - N2010 E11225 - N2130 E11410 - N2050 E11615 - N1740 E11530 - N1605 E11210 TOP FL550 MOV: WNW 07KT INTST CHANGE: INTSF C: 975HPA MAX WIND: 55KT FCST PSN +6 HR: 17/0000Z N2005 E11255 FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 60KT FCST PSN +12 HR: 17/0600Z N2035 E11155 FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 65KT FCST PSN +18 HR: 17/1200Z N2055 E11055 FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 60KT FCST PSN +24 HR: 17/1800Z N2105 E10950 FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 55KT RMK: NIL NXT MSG: 20230717/0000Z = ***** Received WOAU49 at 06:00 UTC, 16/07/23 from AMMC ***** IDY21080 40:2:1:04:70S075E25090:01:00 SECURITE High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10 Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC At 1800UTC 16 July 2023 GALE WARNING FOR SOUTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 1800UTC Cold front 558S161E 59S159E to low 964hPa near 59S158E, 59S162E to low 967hPa near 60S159E at 170000UTC, weakening thereafter. AREA AFFECTED Bounded by 57S160E 60S160E 60S157E 57S156E 57S160E. FORECAST Westerly quarter winds 30/40 knots shifting northwesterly quarter winds east of cold front, turning clockwise within 240nm of lows. Winds easing below 34 knots throughout the area by 170300UTC. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. See also Melbourne Gale Warning 4. PLEASE BE AWARE Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. The next alert will be issued by 0100 UTC 17 July 2023 ***** Received WOAU14 at 06:00 UTC, 16/07/23 from AMMC ***** IDY21030 40:2:1:04:70S100E35060:01:00 SECURITE High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10 Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC At 1800UTC 16 July 2023 GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN, SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS SITUATION AT 1800UTC Cold front [1] 39S122E 44S136E 49S142E to low [1] 982hPa near 50S133E. Forecast 38S124E 45S142E 50S152E to low [1] 986hPa near 52S145E at 170000UTC, 39S130E 51S162E to low [1] 986hPa near 52S158E at 170600UTC, weakening thereafter. Low [2] 985hPa near 47S121E. Forecast 986hPa near 48S127E at 170000UTC, 987hPa near 49S135E at 170600UTC, then developing into cold front [2] forecast 38S132E 47S148E 50S151E 51S147E to low [2] 986hPa near 51S143E at 171200UTC, 39S139E 48S154E 51S157E 52S148E to low [2] 986hPa near 51S146E at 171800UTC. AREA AFFECTED Bounded by 40S110E 44S149E 48S160E 52S160E 52S148E 46S105E 40S110E. FORECAST Westerly quarter winds 30/40 knots west of cold front, shifting northwesterly quarter winds east of cold front, turning clockwise winds 30/40 knots within 300nm of lows. Winds easing below 34 knots west of 124E by 170000UTC, easing west of 130E by 170600UTC, and easing west of 140E by 171800UTC. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. See also Melbourne Gale Warning 9 and Melbourne Storm Force Wind Warning 10. PLEASE BE AWARE Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. The next alert will be issued by 0100 UTC 17 July 2023 ***** Received WOAU44 at 06:00 UTC, 16/07/23 from AMMC ***** IDY21030 40:2:1:04:70S100E35060:01:00 SECURITE High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10 Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC At 1800UTC 16 July 2023 GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN, SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS SITUATION AT 1800UTC Cold front [1] 39S122E 44S136E 49S142E to low [1] 982hPa near 50S133E. Forecast 38S124E 45S142E 50S152E to low [1] 986hPa near 52S145E at 170000UTC, 39S130E 51S162E to low [1] 986hPa near 52S158E at 170600UTC, weakening thereafter. Low [2] 985hPa near 47S121E. Forecast 986hPa near 48S127E at 170000UTC, 987hPa near 49S135E at 170600UTC, then developing into cold front [2] forecast 38S132E 47S148E 50S151E 51S147E to low [2] 986hPa near 51S143E at 171200UTC, 39S139E 48S154E 51S157E 52S148E to low [2] 986hPa near 51S146E at 171800UTC. AREA AFFECTED Bounded by 40S110E 44S149E 48S160E 52S160E 52S148E 46S105E 40S110E. FORECAST Westerly quarter winds 30/40 knots west of cold front, shifting northwesterly quarter winds east of cold front, turning clockwise winds 30/40 knots within 300nm of lows. Winds easing below 34 knots west of 124E by 170000UTC, easing west of 130E by 170600UTC, and easing west of 140E by 171800UTC. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. See also Melbourne Gale Warning 9 and Melbourne Storm Force Wind Warning 10. PLEASE BE AWARE Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. The next alert will be issued by 0100 UTC 17 July 2023 ***** Received WOAU50 at 06:00 UTC, 16/07/23 from AMMC ***** IDY21090 40:2:1:04:70S075E35060:01:00 SECURITE High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10 Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC At 1800UTC 16 July 2023 STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS SITUATION AT 1800UTC Vigorous clockwise flow associated with low 976hPa near 47S090E. Forecast 974hPa near 48S094E at 170000UTC, 973hpa near 49S100E at 170600UTC, 972hPa near 50S104E at 171200UTC, and 970hPa near 52S108E at 171800UTC. AREA AFFECTED Bounded by 34S088E 39S107E 49S114E 52S108E 51S090E 48S080E 35S080E 34S088E. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/47 knots within 600nm of low centre, increasing to 45/55 knots with 300nm of low centre. Winds easing below 48 knots within 600nm of low by 171500UTC. High to very high seas. Moderate to heavy swell. PLEASE BE AWARE Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. The next alert will be issued by 0100 UTC 17 July 2023 ***** Received WOAU48 at 06:00 UTC, 16/07/23 from AMMC ***** IDY21070 40:2:1:04:70S075E35060:01:00 SECURITE High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10 Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC At 1800UTC 16 July 2023 GALE WARNING FOR SOUTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 1800UTC Vigorous southwesterly quarter winds developing associated with forecast low 971hPa near 56S110E at 162100UTC. Forecast low 973hPa near 56S113E at 170000UTC, 978hPa near 57S118E at 170600UTC, 984hPa near 58S120E at 171200UTC, easing thereafter. AREA AFFECTED Bounded by 52S107E 54S106E 56S108E 56S110E 54S124E 52S124E 52S107E. FORECAST Southwesterly quarter winds 30/40 knots developing from 162100UTC within 300nm of low in northern semicircle. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. PLEASE BE AWARE Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. The next alert will be issued by 0100 UTC 17 July 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------------