TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 162013 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.9S
174.5E AT 161800UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY.
DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS. 
 

LLCC EXPOSED. CONVECTION DISPLACED TO SOUTHEAST OF LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC
ABOUT LESS THAN 3/4 FROM DEEP CONVECTION YIELDS DT=2.5, MET=2.0 AND
PT=2.0. FT BASED ON PT. THUS YIELDING, T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS. 

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT SLOW MOVING WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. 

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.  

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 15.7S 174.5E SLOW MOVING WITH 25KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 15.7S 174.4E SLOW MOVING WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK: 
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 16.1S 174.4E SLOW MOVING WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 16.9S 174.2E SLOW MOVING WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD04F. TD04F
WILL CONTIUNE TO BE MONITORED AND ADVISORY WILL BE REISSUED IF
CHANCED INCREASES FOR IT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.