TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 161856 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2S 158.1W AT 161800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING ITSELF FROM THE EAST OF LLCC. TD10F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH THEN DECREASES THEREAFTER. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS, YIELDS T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 26.0S 153.7W MOV SE AT 31 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 32.7S 149.3W MOV SE AT 35 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 39.4S 144.9W MOV SSE AT 36 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 46.1S 140.5W MOV SSE AT 36 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 170200UTC.